Here in Sheffield City Region we have done some early work on forecasting business rate uplift from our EZ sites. However, as we move towards discussions on how best to manage funds and potential calls on this new funding stream there is a need to look more closely at the potential uplift. Has anyone done any work on this, and in particular developed a model that helps to address the complexities around risk, potential for appeals, adjustments, other sources of fluctuations etc... and how this impacts on the certainty that the LEP can have around the income it is likely to receive.
--The Scottish EZs have worked through the analysis of calculating additionality and business rates uplift, so that would be a good place to start.
--Data is also available from DCLG (http://www.communities.gov.uk/localgovernment/localregional/localgovernmentfinance/statistics/nondomesticrates/outturn/outturndatalocallevel/) on reliefs for all local authorities since 2005/06, which may provide some insights.
--Centre for Cities' research identifies some of the risks involved with business rates retention in TIF schemes and in the system in general TIF: http://www.centreforcities.org/tiftwo.html Business Rates Retention: http://www.centreforcities.org/urbanoutliers.html